As more states ease restrictions, experts urge continued caution

WASHINGTON (SBG) — A growing number of governors are lifting the restrictions they imposed over the last year to slow the spread of the coronavirus pandemic, earning praise from business groups and some weary citizens but raising alarm among federal health officials who fear a resurgence of the virus.

Experts say the significant progress the U.S. has made in recent months in reducing case numbers and vaccinating the population could be endangered if states repeat the mistakes they made last summer by opening up too quickly. Still, Republican and Democratic governors maintain they are trying to balance public health and economic concerns as the nation’s prognosis improves.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves announced last week that they would lift all restrictions on businesses and repeal mask mandates. Both encouraged the public to continue voluntarily complying with public health guidance, and many Texas businesses promptly announced they would retain private mask requirements.

The decisions drew immediate backlash from Democrats and public health experts, with Dr. Anthony Fauci, the federal government’s top infectious disease expert, calling the rolling back of restrictions “inexplicable” and President Joe Biden slamming the governors for “Neanderthal thinking.” Even some Republicans suggested the states were moving too far, too fast.

“I don't know really what the big rush to get rid of the mask is because these masks have saved a lot, a lot of lives," West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice told CNN last week as he prepared to ease capacity limits on most businesses where social distancing is possible.

Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson toned down most requirements for businesses and individuals to “strong recommendations” that do not carry penalties for noncompliance. However, he opted to keep a mask mandate in place at least through the end of March, and he warned new restrictions might be necessary if the public does not behave responsibly.

“It’s not the immediate end of everything...,” Hutchinson said on “Fox News Sunday.” “We didn’t want a cliff. I wanted an off-ramp.”

Given the partisanship that has clouded the response to the pandemic, it is not surprising to see conservative Republican governors leading the charge to return to normal. Moderate Republicans and some Democrats who took more measured approaches in the past are now aggressively reversing restrictions as well, though.

In Maryland, Republican Gov. Larry Hogan announced Tuesday that capacity limits would be lifted beginning Friday on indoor and outdoor dining, retail businesses, religious facilities, fitness centers, personal services, and indoor recreation establishments. Masking, physical distancing, and other safety protocols will remain in place, and large indoor and outdoor event venues will still be restricted to 50% capacity.

“With the pace of vaccinations rapidly rising and our health metrics steadily improving, the lifting of these restrictions is a prudent, positive step in the right direction and an important part of our economic recovery,” Hogan said.

Democratic Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont recently set forth similar changes for his state, with capacity limits on restaurants, houses of worship, libraries, and most businesses eliminated as of March 19 and outdoor amusement parks opening in April. Face coverings will still be required in public, an 11 p.m. closing time will remain in effect for restaurants and events, and bars that only serve beverages must stay closed.

“This is not Texas. This is not Mississippi. This is Connecticut,” Lamont said last week. “We are maintaining the masks.”

Other Democrats have rejected the rush to fully lift restrictions, even as they soften some limits on businesses and restaurants. Nevada Gov. Steve Sisolak told The Associated Press he believes a more cautious approach will benefit his state’s residents and its economy in the long run.

“Mark my words: Nevada will be the safest place to have a convention or to come and visit. It will be safe for the tourists; it will be safe for the hotel operators and for employees and their families,” Sisolak said.

The policy changes reflect a downward trend in coronavirus cases, an acceleration of vaccinations, and a growing sense of fatigue with allowing the pandemic to interfere with daily life and business activity. Federal health officials acknowledged those factors Wednesday, but they implored Americans to persevere.

“We are at a critical point in this pandemic...,” said Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, at a White House COVID-19 task force briefing. “We ask for your patience in practicing proven prevention measures for just a little longer.”

New cases and deaths are declining, but they remain at rates far higher than health experts would like. There is also concern about more transmissible variants of the virus spreading in the U.S. that might be resistant to vaccines.

“It really is the vaccines against the variants right now, and the more people fail to follow public health guidance, the more they help the variants in winning the race,” said Leslie Kantor, a professor of global public health at Rutgers University.

The CDC issued guidance this week advising those who have been fully vaccinated that they can socialize with other inoculated people and visit unvaccinated grandchildren. Officials described the recommendations as a first step toward resuming “pre-pandemic lives,” but they stressed mask mandates and limits on the size of indoor gatherings are still necessary.

“Once vaccinated people make up a greater proportion of the general U.S. population, these community-level restrictions will be readdressed, but not yet,” Walensky and other CDC officials wrote in a JAMA Viewpoint article.

At Wednesday’s briefing, Fauci estimated 70% to 85% of the country would need to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity, and that might not occur until late summer or early fall. However, he suggested it would be safe to resume some activities well before that point if current vaccination rates continue.

“You don’t have to wait until you get full herd immunity to get a really profound effect on what you can do,” Fauci said.

One-quarter of U.S. adults have received at least one dose of a vaccine, including 60% of those over 65, and states have begun making progress in vaccinating other high-risk populations. Supplies of vaccines are set to continue increasing in the weeks ahead as Johnson & Johnson steps up production of its single-dose drug.

According to Laura Hungerford, head of the department of population health sciences at Virginia Tech, much has been learned about the coronavirus and how to prevent it since states took extreme measures to contain it last spring. Phasing out restrictions can work, but only if people choose to take sensible actions.

“We really want people to be able to share times together and for businesses to bounce back... but this puts more responsibility on each of us to protect others and ourselves by where we chose to go and what we chose to do,” Hungerford said.

It has been just under one year since the weight of the pandemic set in for many Americans on March 11, 2021, as the NBA suspended its season, President Donald Trump announced restrictions on travel from Europe in a primetime address, and Tom Hanks announced he had tested positive. Less than a week later, the Trump administration released guidelines calling for Americans to curtail normal activities for 15 days to “slow the spread” of the virus.

President Biden is set to speak to the public Thursday night to mark the anniversary of schools and businesses locking down, to discuss the sacrifices Americans have made to fight the pandemic, and to lay out the nation’s path forward. He is likely to echo his advisers’ pleas to continue making those sacrifices a bit longer.

As more Americans get vaccinated and more states open up, convincing everyone else they need to adhere to restrictions could prove difficult, and governors will inevitably face intensifying public pressure to scale back restrictions. Experts say doing so when vaccination rates are low and the threat posed by variants is unclear carries tremendous risks.

“We could create another surge pretty easily if we don’t stay on it,” Kantor said.

With warmer weather encouraging outdoor activities and vaccines reducing the likelihood of suffering severe symptoms, Hungerford is hopeful another surge would not be as damaging as previous waves of infection. If Americans avoid large crowds and situations that are known to drive transmission until a larger share of the population is vaccinated, the danger would drop considerably.

“Whether we have another surge will depend on if people choose to get together in groups in ways that spread disease or not,” she said.

Relying on Americans to voluntarily adhere to public health recommendations has produced mixed results so far, with some states struggling to contain outbreaks after opening up, and many have had to reverse course when cases spiked. After a year of navigating onerous restrictions, though, skepticism that such measures are justified is rising.

A ScottRasmussen.com survey conducted in late February found half of American voters believe many cities and states overreacted to the pandemic in ways that did more harm than good, and 37% feel governments acted appropriately. There were deep partisan divisions, with 71% of Republicans saying states and cities overreacted and 57% of Democrats believing they did not.

Americans’ opinions of their own state’s handling of the crisis are slightly more positive, according to a Monmouth University Poll released Monday. In that survey, 56% said their state’s governor had done a good job responding to the pandemic, though that number has fallen from the low 70s last spring.

(If you are viewing on a mobile app, click here to take the poll.)

A poll conducted by Progress Texas found Texans evenly split, 48%-48%, on approval of Gov. Abbott’s decision to lift the state’s mask mandate. Urban residents, Democrats, and independents disapproved by wide margins, while Republicans overwhelmingly supported it.

The vaccine rollout has inspired some new optimism, but most Americans appear to recognize the end of the pandemic is not quite imminent. The Monmouth poll found just 21% of respondents believe the country will return to normal by summer, with 40% expecting normalcy by the end of the year and the rest saying it will take longer or never happen at all.

Kantor pointed to three key benchmarks that should be met before it is safe to get back to something resembling pre-pandemic life: a high percentage of the population fully vaccinated, a very low rate of positive tests, and some evidence the vaccines are effective against the main variants circulating in the U.S. In the meantime, she recommended the public wear masks and exercise caution, no matter what state they are in or what mandates are in place.

“There’s no reason not to keep doing all the prevention practices you can do in any given situation,” she said.